> For the complete documentation index, see [llms.txt](https://docs.usetrickle.xyz/llms.txt). Markdown versions of documentation pages are available by appending `.md` to page URLs; this page is available as [Markdown](https://docs.usetrickle.xyz/the-protocol/the-thesis.md).

# The Thesis

{% hint style="info" %}
*This section presents a performance comparison of three savings strategies using real historical data. This is not financial advice. Past performance does not predict future returns.*
{% endhint %}

## The question

If a trader had automatically saved 1% of every HYPE/USDC swap since November 2024, what would that position look like today versus two alternatives: the same amount passively accumulated in BTC, or simply kept in USDC?

**The setup**

* **Monthly swap volume:** $20,000
* **Savings rate:** 1% per swap → $200 saved per month
* **Period:** November 2024 to mid-June 2026 (19 months)
* **Total capital saved:** $4,000 (no compounding — savings held as-is)
* **Three strategies:** accumulate HYPE, accumulate BTC, hold USDC

***

**Simulation: $20,000/month swap volume, 1% saved**

**The data**

| Month     | HYPE avg price | BTC monthly close | HYPE saved     | BTC saved        | USDC saved |
| --------- | -------------- | ----------------- | -------------- | ---------------- | ---------- |
| Nov 2024  | $6.00          | $96,449           | 33.33          | 0.00207          | $200       |
| Dec 2024  | $22.00         | $93,429           | 9.09           | 0.00214          | $200       |
| Jan 2025  | $21.00         | $102,405          | 9.52           | 0.00195          | $200       |
| Feb 2025  | $17.00         | $84,373           | 11.76          | 0.00237          | $200       |
| Mar 2025  | $14.00         | $82,549           | 14.29          | 0.00242          | $200       |
| Apr 2025  | $16.00         | $94,207           | 12.50          | 0.00212          | $200       |
| May 2025  | $22.00         | $104,638          | 9.09           | 0.00191          | $200       |
| Jun 2025  | $30.00         | $107,135          | 6.67           | 0.00187          | $200       |
| Jul 2025  | $40.00         | $115,758          | 5.00           | 0.00173          | $200       |
| Aug 2025  | $50.00         | $108,237          | 4.00           | 0.00185          | $200       |
| Sep 2025  | $55.00         | $114,056          | 3.64           | 0.00175          | $200       |
| Oct 2025  | $35.00         | $109,556          | 5.71           | 0.00183          | $200       |
| Nov 2025  | $28.00         | $90,394           | 7.14           | 0.00221          | $200       |
| Dec 2025  | $25.00         | $87,509           | 8.00           | 0.00229          | $200       |
| Jan 2026  | $28.00         | \~$84,000         | 7.14           | 0.00238          | $200       |
| Feb 2026  | $32.00         | \~$79,000         | 6.25           | 0.00253          | $200       |
| Mar 2026  | $38.00         | \~$75,000         | 5.26           | 0.00267          | $200       |
| Apr 2026  | $42.00         | \~$78,000         | 4.76           | 0.00256          | $200       |
| May 2026  | $58.00         | \~$71,000         | 3.45           | 0.00282          | $200       |
| Jun 2026  | $68.00         | \~$64,000         | 2.94           | 0.00313          | $200       |
| **Total** |                |                   | **\~169 HYPE** | **\~0.0449 BTC** | **$4,000** |

**Results: mid-June 2026, HYPE $67, BTC $66,500**

| Strategy             | Units accumulated | Value today   | Return on saved capital |
| -------------------- | ----------------- | ------------- | ----------------------- |
| 🔵 HYPE accumulation | \~169 HYPE        | **\~$11,323** | **+183%**               |
| ⚪ USDC hold          | $4,000            | **$4,000**    | **0%**                  |
| 🟠 BTC accumulation  | \~0.0449 BTC      | **\~$2,986**  | **−25%**                |

**The thesis is not "HYPE always goes up." The thesis is: if you believe in the long-term trajectory of Hyperliquid, passive accumulation through your existing trading activity is a more disciplined and consistent way to build that position than trying to time entries.**


---

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